Hollywood is acutely aware the death of late-night TV is near

Watching this week's Emmys, a viewer could assume there's never been a better time in Hollywood to hold its most powerful to account.

Major winners Hacks and The Studio both poke fun at the tightrope between populism and art.

Recently axed late-night host Stephen Colbert won his first Emmy for Outstanding Talk Series, as the crowd gave him a standing ovation.

In reality, the red carpet had barely been packed up before US broadcaster ABC and its parent company Disney announced the "indefinite" axing of yet another late-night host.

Like Colbert before him, Jimmy Kimmel's cancellation was largely blamed on his stance towards the Trump administration.

The on-screen pause of Kimmel — who suggested that conservative pundit Charlie Kirk's alleged killer may have been a MAGA Republican — was quickly celebrated by the US President.

"Kimmel has zero talent, and worse ratings than even Colbert, if that's possible," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

He also honed in on his firing line, saying Jimmy Fallon and Seth Meyers should be next.

For those still watching, it left one question: is this the end of late-night TV?

By its very name, late-night television hints at things that can be only said after-hours.

But in the decades since its inception, it has become a mainstream space for politicians to try their hand at winning the "popularity contest in pop culture", says senior lecturer in American studies at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre, Rodney Taveira.

Think Jimmy Fallon messing up Trump's hair. Or Bill Clinton playing the saxophone.

But there have been very few occasions where US politicians have been able to determine the fate of late-night.

One of the most prominent examples, Dr Taveira says, also suggests its peril.

The Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour, a 1960s variety show, was abruptly yanked by CBS because of its persistent opposition to the Vietnam War, support of civil rights and criticism of authority.

The brothers responded to their firing by filing a breach of contract lawsuit, in which CBS lost and ultimately had to pay.

"Don't tell a comedian not to say a certain word. For sure they'll do it," Dick Smothers said in 2019.

"The funny thing is, I look back at those things. They're so benign, but at the time they were volatile."

In the wake of 9/11, Bill Maher's Politically Incorrect was also cancelled when he called the US military's bombing "cowardly".

In response, The White House asked for people to "watch what they say and watch what they do."

In Trump's first term, Colbert made a joke likening the president's mouth to Russian president Vladimir Putin's "c*** holster".

He later apologised but not to the president.

Instead, Colbert directed his words at the LGBTQIA+ community for any implied homophobia.

It may be the best example to contrast late-night's relationship between the first and second Trump administrations.

"I think [Trump] sees mainstream television, journalism, against him," Dr Taveira says.

"And in the second term, he is getting revenge. Essentially, I think he's motivated by vengeance."

One guaranteed way to get even is lawsuits.

In December, the US's ABC — the same broadcaster that aired Kimmel's show — agreed to give US$15 million (NZ$25.5m) to Trump's presidential library to settle a defamation lawsuit over comments made by anchor George Stephanopoulos.

Paramount — former home to Colbert — will pay Trump US$16m to settle a lawsuit over an interview with former presidential rival Kamala Harris.

"These are commercial ventures," Dr Taveira says, of the sway these lawsuits may have on the axings.

"The whole point of network television and radio is to sell audiences to advertisers.

"There has been this kind of imbuing of popular culture with a great social and political importance, and as a scholar of mass media, I wouldn't want to underplay that.

"But, at the same time, to find one's kind of political lodestones in mass-produced pop culture objects and texts, I think you're going to be disappointed a lot of the time."

Still, he says, it hints at Trump's growing influence over his critics.

"It seems that mainstream media, [and] mainstream culture, more broadly, is cowed by the dominance of the conservative and the right-wing agenda in the United States," he said.

Despite priding itself on anti-cancel culture, the demise of Colbert and Kimmel have been largely supported by the MAGA crowd.

Democrats too, have veered away from any real signs of outrage over a gradual degradation of free speech, Dr Taveira points out.

"The Trump administration is happy to encourage the curtailment of free speech when it is speech that is against them," he says.

"Maybe I'm looking in the wrong places. But I'm just struck by the kind of acceptance of, you know, 'this is the way things are now'."

All in all, it paints a grim future for late-night and its strength "as a site for contesting power".

"That's a kind of a truism of cultural studies that messages get encoded by say, late-night talk show hosts or comedians, then they get decoded," Dr Taveira says.

"In that process, historically, there has been a kind of flexibility. So, you can take the meanings that you want from media.

"It would seem to me that the encoding is becoming so strong that you cannot take more than one message away.

"And this makes you an easy target to be next on the hit list."

Perhaps Hacks best gets it right.

In a penultimate episode, Jean Smart's Deborah Vance is faced with the possibility of abandoning her dream of being a late-night host or abandoning her morals.

She chooses the former.

In a rousing monologue, Smart's Deborah climbs to a crescendo in front of a captive audience of millions: "You can try to silence me but you'll never —".

But it's too late. Her feed has been cut.